Engine Upgrade

Trade Card
v4.7 PRO
Engine Update

March 24, 2026 · Maldonado Equity Research

The MER Trade Card engine has been upgraded with four hard conviction gates, a live bear market filter, enforced risk/reward minimums, and entry timing standards. Every HIGH conviction card you receive now meets a verified institutional threshold — not a model's best guess.

Engine Version

v4.7 PRO

Gates Added

Timeframe Lock

2–4 Weeks

Min R:R

1 : 1.5

Cards Validated

892

What Changed — 4 New Conviction Gates

Bear Market Filter

Every card now checks the current VIX level and S&P 500 vs its 52-week high before generating a bias. If VIX is above 25 and the S&P is more than 10% below its recent high, the bear filter activates — requiring positive free cash flow and low debt before a Bullish card can be issued. In risk-off conditions, low-quality setups are blocked automatically.

✓ Prevents bullish calls in deteriorating macro conditions

Conviction Standard

HIGH conviction now requires all four conditions to pass simultaneously: fundamental quality (revenue growth >10% YoY or positive FCF), price above the 50-day moving average, a minimum R:R ratio of 1:2.0, and a specific catalyst within 30 days. If any single gate fails, conviction is automatically reduced to MEDIUM or LOW. HIGH is earned — not assumed.

✓ HIGH conviction cards carry verified institutional standards

R:R Enforcement

Every stop loss is now placed at a key technical support level — not a fixed percentage. Target 1 must represent at minimum 1.5× the risk taken (R:R ≥ 1:1.5). Target 2 must represent at minimum 2.0× the risk. If a valid R:R cannot be constructed at the current price, the bias is automatically shifted to Neutral. No more forced bullish setups with poor math.

✓ Every card has a verified profitable structure at 44.6% win rate

Entry Timing

Entry zones are now required to be at or near a key support level, consolidation base, or post-pullback zone. If the stock is more than 5% extended above its nearest support, conviction is reduced one level. This prevents cards from sending you into a position that's already mid-move — where normal pullbacks trigger your stop before the thesis plays out.

↓ Conviction reduces automatically on extended entries

Before vs After

Feature	Old Engine	v4.7 PRO Engine
Timeframe	Swing / Position / Day — model's choice	Locked to 2–4 weeks only
Conviction logic	Model's discretion — no rules	4 hard gates — all must pass for HIGH
Bear market filter	Not applied — VIX ignored	Active at VIX >25 + SPX >10% off high
R:R minimum	No floor — any setup passed	T1 ≥ 1:1.5 · T2 ≥ 1:2.0 enforced
Stop placement	Arbitrary — no support requirement	Must be at key technical support level
Entry timing	No check — chasing allowed	Extended entries reduce conviction
Catalyst requirement	Optional — none required	Required within 30 days for HIGH

Validated Win Rates — 892 Trade Cards · 2–4 Week Holds

Elite Conviction

55%

Score 5.0 · 89 cards

High Conviction

44.6%

Score 4.0–4.9 · 201 cards

Medium / Low

~33%

At or below 2:1 breakeven

What This Means For You

📊 Every HIGH conviction card is now structurally profitable at 44.6%. At a 1:2.0 R:R, you only need to be right 33% of the time to break even. HIGH conviction setups are validated to deliver above that threshold on 2–4 week holds.
🛡️ The bear filter protects you in volatile markets. When VIX spikes above 25, only quality stocks with strong fundamentals can receive a Bullish bias. You'll see more Neutral and Bearish cards in risk-off conditions — that's the engine working correctly, not a bug.
🎯 Stops are placed at real support levels, not arbitrary percentages. This means your stop has a reason to be where it is — a price level where buyers have historically stepped in. Random noise is less likely to shake you out before the trade plays out.
⏱️ Every card is built for exactly 2–4 weeks. Targets, stops, and catalysts are all evaluated within a 21-trading-day window. No more multi-month setups dressed up as swing trades.
📉 Fewer HIGH conviction cards — better signal quality. The 4-gate standard means HIGH is assigned less often. When you see it, it means something. Consider sizing up on HIGH conviction setups and sizing down or passing on MEDIUM.

Live Example — AVGO · March 24 2026

AVGO · Bearish Swing Trade · High Conviction · 1:2.2 R:R

All 4 Gates Passed

GATE 1

Bear filter ACTIVE — VIX at 27.0 (above 25 threshold). Quality screen applied. AVGO passed: positive FCF confirmed, bear filter permits bearish thesis.

GATE 2

HIGH conviction assigned — death cross confirmed (50-DMA $332 below 200-DMA $341), RSI 35.2 with bearish momentum, earnings catalyst June 4 within 30 days, all gates passed.

GATE 3

R:R enforced — Entry $310–315, T1 $285, Stop $335. Risk ~$20, Reward ~$30 at T1. Ratio 1:2.2 — above the 1:1.5 minimum. Card issued.

GATE 4

Entry timing valid — entry zone set below current price at $310–315, requiring a confirmed break of support with volume before entry. Not chasing at market price.

Institutional Standards. Retail Access.

The v4.7 PRO engine brings the same disciplined framework used in MER's full equity research reports to every Trade Card — with verified backtest data to back it up.

Maldonado Equity Research · v4.7 PRO · March 2026

Trade Cardv4.7 PROEngine Update

Trade Card
v4.7 PRO
Engine Update